KABUL, Jaya Pos News — Why are the Taliban so hard to beat in Afghanistan this year? There are three factors that are the answer.
The Taliban are so powerful they even brought down the Afghan capital, Kabul, in just 10 days.
launch the BBC on Friday (13/8/2021), here are three factors why the Taliban is hard to beat this year.
1. The power of the Taliban
Taliban fighters take control of Afghanistan’s presidential palace after Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled the country, in Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday (15/8/2021)
The Afghan government should, in theory, still have the upper hand with more power at its disposal.
Afghan security forces number more than 300,000 people at least on paper. That number includes the Afghan army, air and police forces.
However, the reality is that this country has always struggled to meet the target of recruiting members of the security forces.
Afghan soldiers and police have a bad history of high mortality, desertion and corruption.
A number of unscrupulous commanders asked for a claimed budget for their troops, but in fact the soldiers were never there. This practice is called “ghost soldiers”.
In his latest report to the US Congress, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan (SIGAR) stated, “Serious concerns about the damaging effects of corruption… and questions about the accuracy of the data regarding actual troop strength”.
Jack Wattling of the Royal United Services Institute said even the Afghan Army was never sure how many troops they actually had.
In addition, he revealed, there are problems with the maintenance of defense equipment and morale.
troops were often sent to areas where they had no tribal or family ties. This is one reason why some people may leave their posts so quickly without putting up a fight.
Taliban supporters gather in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border town of Chaman, Pakistan, Wednesday (14/7/2021). The Taliban are urging Afghanistan by saying they are capturing Spin Boldaka, a strategic location for Afghanistan’s border crossing with Pakistan.
Then why is the Taliban so strong? The answer is even more difficult to quantify.
According to the US Center for Combating Terrorism at West Point, estimates put the core strength of the Taliban group at 60,000.
with the addition of other militia and support groups, their number could exceed 200,000 personnel.
however, Dr Mike Martin, a former British army officer who speaks Pashto and traces the history of the conflict in Helmand in his book, An Intimate War, warns it is too dangerous to define the Taliban as a monolithic group.
instead he explains, “The Taliban are closer to a loose coalition of independent, and likely temporary, affiliated franchisees.”
He noted that the Afghan government is also divided by the interests of various factions at the local level.
Afghanistan’s history of change illustrates how families, tribes, and even government officials have shifted their support, often to ensure their own survival.
2. Access to weaponry
once again, the Afghan government actually has the advantage in terms of both funding and weapons.
They are being paid billions of dollars to pay for salaries and defense equipment, most of which the United States provides.
In a July 2021 report, SIGAR said more than US$88 billion (Rp 1.26 quadrillion) had been spent on Afghanistan’s security.
however, the data adds, “The question is whether the money is well spent, which in the end, will be answered by what results from the fighting on the ground.”
The Afghan Air Force must prove its superiority in critical situations on the battlefield.
however, they had to fight to keep and man the 211 planes, which made matters worse, as the Taliban deliberately targeted the pilots.
They are also unable to meet the demands of commanders on the ground.
therefore, there has been recent US Air Force involvement in cities like Lashkar Gah that are already under the control of the Taliban.
It remains unclear how much longer the US is willing to provide such support.
Smoke rises near the United States Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday (15/8/2021). The Taliban entered Kabul from all over that day as the US was evacuating its diplomats from the embassy.
The Taliban often rely on their supply of funds from the drug trade, but they have also received support from outside – notably Pakistan.
Not long ago the Taliban seized weapons and equipment from the Afghan security forces. some of these were US-supplied – including Humvees, night vision kits, machine guns, mortars and artillery equipment.
Afghanistan was awash with weapons after the Soviet invasion, and the Taliban have shown they can defeat far more sophisticated forces.
imagine the lethal effects of an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) improvised bomb targeting US and British troops.
These factors, as well as local knowledge and understanding of the battlefield, are also the reasons why the Taliban are hard to beat.
3. Focus on the North and West
despite the distinct character of the Taliban, there is some evidence that they have a coordinated plan for their recent advance.
ben Barry, a former British army chief and currently a senior adviser at the Institute of Strategic Studies, admits the Taliban’s gains may be opportunistic.
even so, he added, “If you’re writing a surgery plan, I’d be hard-pressed to come up with anything better than this.”
He pointed to the focus of the Taliban’s attacks in the North and the West. yet it was not their traditional enclave of power in the South, where several regional capitals had successively fallen into their hands.
Taliban members stand guard in the city of Kunduz, northern Afghanistan, Monday (9/8/2021). Militia attacks have intensified in recent weeks, capturing dozens of provincial capitals and district after district in Afghanistan.
The Taliban also seized border crossing areas and key checkpoints, which supply much-needed customs revenue from the Afghan government due to a budget deficit.
they have also increased the targeting of assassinations against key officials, human rights activists, and journalists.
Slowly but surely they are wiping out some of the small gains made over the last 20 years.
as for the Afghan government’s strategy in dealing with the Taliban, it is proving more difficult to define.
Their promises to retake all the territory captured by the Taliban sound empty.
because, the Afghan special forces are relatively small in number, around 10,000 personnel, and they are unable to put up a fight.
The Taliban also appear to be winning the propaganda war and narrative battle.
Barry said their momentum on the battlefield had boosted morale and strengthened a sense of unity.
On the other hand, the Afghan government was under pressure, fighting each other and firing its generals.
Taliban fighters wave their flag at the home of the governor of Ghazni province, Ghazni, Afghanistan, Sunday (15/8/2021).
How will this feud end? Such a situation certainly looks bleak for the Afghan government.
however, RUSSIA’s Jack Watling said that while the Afghan military looked increasingly pessimistic for a while, the situation could still be salvaged by politics.
If the government can reach out to tribal leaders, he said, there is still a possibility in the midst of a stalemate.
this is the view echoed by Mike Martin, pointing to the case of the return of former warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum to the city of Mazar-i-Sharif as a pivotal moment.
summer battles were coming to an end as winter began to take their place, which made maneuvering more difficult for troops on the ground.
There is still the possibility that everything will be deadlocked by the end of the year, even if the Taliban is hit by a rift.
however, today it seems that the efforts of the US and NATO to bring peace, security and stability in Afghanistan are as futile as what the Soviets did before. (Red)
